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The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 is expected to be formally announced in October. However, the federal government shutdown may affect the timing of that news.
Millions of Social Security beneficiaries are poised to get a boost to their monthly checks next year. When the Social Security COLA is announced, experts have projected the benefit increase may fall in the range of 2.7% to 2.8%, based on the most recent government inflation data.
Beneficiaries have seen several significant increases in their benefits in recent years — the largest was 8.7% in 2022 — due to higher inflation. But as the pace of inflation has come down, so have the cost-of-living adjustments.
Still, many Social Security beneficiaries continue to face higher prices for necessities.
“They’re feeling the pinch, but the inflation numbers aren’t necessarily showing it,” said Shannon Benton, executive director at The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group.
Here are three things to watch ahead of the Social Security COLA announcement.
Shutdown may delay COLA announcement
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is based on third-quarter data for the consumer price index.
On Oct. 15, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the final month of data for that quarter. But that announcement may be delayed, depending on how soon Washington lawmakers are able to resolve their differences and reopen the federal government.
If the CPI data is delayed, that would affect the Social Security COLA announcement, too, according to the Department of Labor’s contingency plan.
A federal shutdown has postponed the announcement of the Social Security COLA before. In 2013, a shutdown put off the CPI release, and the COLA announcement, until Oct. 30.
Average retirement benefit may go up by $54 per month
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 may be around 2.7% to 2.8%, according to the latest estimates from experts released last month.
“It’s almost too close to call,” Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, said of the projections based on last month’s consumer price index data. “I can’t remember it ever being this close.”
Johnson estimated last month the COLA could be 2.8%, though it was very close to 2.7%, she said. That 2.8% estimated COLA would push the average retirement benefit up by about $54.70 per month, according to Johnson.
The Senior Citizens League last month projected the 2026 COLA would be 2.7%, amounting to an increase of about $54 per month for the average retirement benefit.
Even with one more month of data, the COLA may not change by much compared with those projections, Johnson said.
Experts’ estimates for next year’s COLA have steadily increased as this year progressed. In the past several months, those projections have pointed to a 2.6% to 2.8% Social Security COLA for 2026.
That range is slightly higher than the 2.5% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment beneficiaries saw in 2025. It is also in line with the average 2.6% COLA over the past 20 years, according to The Senior Citizens League.
For longtime recipients whose benefits have increased with COLAs over the years, the distinction between the 2.5% increase that went into effect this year and the slightly higher estimates for 2026 may show up more prominently in their monthly payments, according to Benton.
“When you’re accruing over years and years of retirement, a 10th of a percent can make a difference,” Benton said.
Medicare Part B premiums may cost more
Exactly how much of a COLA increase beneficiaries may see will also depend on the size of Medicare Part B premiums, which are typically deducted directly from Social Security benefit checks.
“You don’t know the bottom line until they announce the Part B premium,” Johnson said.
The standard monthly Part B premium may go up by 11.6% or $21.50 per month, to $206.50 per month from $185, according to Medicare trustees estimates.
The Part B premium rate for the following year is frequently announced in November, though some administrations have done it earlier, according to Benton. The federal government shutdown may also affect the timing of that release, she said.
How much retirees pay for their Medicare Part B premiums is based on their income, with higher earners paying income-related monthly adjustment amounts, or IRMAAs.
While Social Security beneficiaries may see their effective COLA brought down to zero due to higher Medicare Part B premiums, they will not see their benefits reduced, due to what is known as a hold harmless provision, Benton said.